Looking for Patterns in instrumental data                                            
Dr Darko Butina

   
Page dedicated to Air Temperatures

We do not understand temperature patterns of the present and we do not understand temperature patterns of the past, so how can we possibly predict temperature patterns of the future?

The first modern thermometer was invented and manufactured by Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit in 1714 and was calibrated using the Fahrenheit Scale with symbol “OF”.  In 1742, the Celsius scale was invented by Swedish Astronomer Anders Celsius and was assigned the symbol “OC”.  The invention of modern thermometers marks the birth of experimental sciences since, for the first time, scientists across the globe could accurately measure the temperature of any liquid or gas molecule(s) and, most importantly, exchange that information and share their knowledge.  Invention of the thermometer can be rated as one of the top ten of all inventions, since there is not a single device in existence that uses some source of energy to function, that does not have a built-in thermometer-based controller component inside it.  In the last 300 years, thousands of man-hours were used to systematically record temperatures of air during day-time and night-time, a huge amount of money has been spent on building and maintaining weather stations and terabytes of daily temperature readings have been collected.  So, how many research papers have been published analysing this goldmine of daily data – NONE, until I published my paper in 2012!  So while the majority of so-called climate scientists are publishing on a daily basis the latest trend analysis of that theoretical monster called ‘annual global temperature’, which needs a merciful killing, I will dedicate this webpage to the actual daily thermometer-based data and encourage the reader to look for original data and try to learn from that data rather than to look for trends in annual global temperatures (something that does not exist, that cannot be measured, that cannot be validated and that has nothing to do with physical reality around us).  Please bear in mind that all our knowledge about the physical world around us comes from understanding data that is generated by an experiment and independently validated.  Therefore, every dataset has its ‘knowledge domain’ or ‘boundaries’ that are defined by the instrument used to generate the data itself, which in the case of thermometer-based data is the year of the invention of the first modern thermometer, i.e. 1714.  Air temperatures before 1714 are outside our knowledge domain and therefore must be classified as what ‘we will never know’.     

 1.The first paper in scientific literature that analyses thermometer-based patterns for a single weather station, Armagh UK,  "Should We Worry About the Earth’s Calculated Warming at 0.7OC Over Last the Last 100 Years When the Observed Daily Variations Over the Last 161 Years Can Be   as  High as 24OC? "has just been published (19 March 2013). A significance of this paper cannot be emphasised enough. Back in 1998, Mann at al., have published paper known as a 'Hockey Stick', which quickly became a symbol of man-made (also known as mann-made) global warming hysteria, in which they used approach that the Earth atmosphere is a homogeneous system and that the temperature of 1 year can be represented by a single number. Consequently, over thousands papers have been published by small group that was part of 'the Team', all using trend analysis in that theoretical space of annual temperatures and consensus generally accepted by man-made global warming community and official body attached to UN, IPCC, was that the Earth is warming, the warming is unprecedented, it is global and the science is settled and done. What intrigued me when I came across this man-made hysteria following the Climategate affair back in November 2009, was the fact that not a single paper has been published that has found those alarming warming trends in actual thermometer-based data, which I found shocking. So we have situation here where annual temperature was obtained by averaging all daily thermometer-based data into a single number, single number that has no physical property was assigned property of temperature including the symbol that is reserved for thermometer-based data only, and that purely theoretical number that cannot be measured and has no physical meaning was then used to generate an alarm. But if you follow basic principles of experimental sciences, the whole process of raising an alarm would have to start by analysis of the thermometer data first, the data that have been used to generate annual temperatures in first place! So the only possible explanation for that blatant abuse of standard scientific practices is that no alarming trends could be found in thermometer data and instead this new invented 'temperature' was unilaterally declared as a new standard of measuring, or rather calculating, temperatures and as a result we now have thousands of papers claiming different trends which cannot be proven either wrong or right. The only way to fix that problem is to go back to beginning of that process and do the following: since the Earth should be treated as a huge network of local temperature patterns, each weather station has to be analyse for any unusual trends, and only if all weather stations show similar trends and all those trends going in same direction, only then we can make statement that those trends are global. The current 'logic' allows defining stations that fit the model as global and those that don't local! As you will see in the paper, the reality is that neither warming nor cooling trends can be detected in thermometer data, i.e. term unequivocal used by man-made global worming believers can not be applied to thermometer data. Enjoy the paper.
Please note-I have written two separate reports to help non-scientists to understand my paper and would suggest to read two reports before reading the paper. Report 1 and Report 2

Two important papers discussing why there is no such a thing as annual global temperature are by Essex et al., in 2007 and Kramm - Dlugi in 2011.

2. One of the software used in the paper is my own clustering algorithm, dbclus, which I published in 1999 and since then has become one of the standards in scientific field of chemical similarity and diversity. It is written in pseudo-code form so anyone with programming skill can code it in using proffered programming language. 

3. The upside-down pyramid of man-made global warming is based on a single assumption and a single argument - that the Earth's atmosphere is a homogeneous system and that all the local annual temperature patterns can reach an equilibrium and that it is perfectly valid to represent the Earth's temperature as a single number. The problem with that argument is very simple - this putative warming alarm can only be found in theoretical space of annual global temperatures, but NOT in the thermometer-based data, as my paper has clearly showed. So, if you want to find out for yourself which argument makes more sense, perform two easy-to-follow experiments in "When is a system in equilibrium and when it is not?" and find out whether the Earth's atmosphere is homogeneous or heterogeneous system.

4. If anyone out there is still looking for this mystic 33K and still believes that you need to invent greenhouse theory and talk about 'back radiation' read  "Why is searching for missing 33OK lost cause, sign of ignorance or case of fraudulent science!". You will find out that scientists outside climate sciences have known for years what is preventing Earth to overheat during day and preventing it to get too cold during the night. Let me give you a guess - it is not CO2, but two molecules that make 99% of our atmosphere, plus water. Simple, really, if you know your chemistry.

5. MY NEW PAPER IS OUT! Paper entitled 'Quantifying the effects that N2, O2 and H2O have on night-to-day warming trends at ground level' has just been published in International Journal of Chemical modeling. It is the first paper that quantifies the amount of heat energy from the sun reaches ground level thermometers. It also shows that it is the proximity of the water and not latitude that controls ground level thermometers. Enjoy.

6. Latest 2015 Arctic paper is OUT!! Paper entitled 'Is the Arctic Melting? Theory vs Observations' has just been published. It is the first comprehensive numerical analysis of 20 weather stations withing Arctic Circle and clearly shows that the Arctic is the most extreme place on our planet where daily temperatures can go from +35.0C in July to -65.0C in February, total range of 100.0C. It also shows that each weather station has a unique temperature fingerprint, chaotic in nature, and that it is impossible to average all those temperature ranges to some single annual number.



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